It won’t impact it that much. To win the Senate the Dems need to win the presidency and flip four senate seats as well as reelect Democratic incumbents in Michigan+the states that Hillary carried in 2016. The most flippable states right now are Colorado, Maine, Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa. Best Fill The Seat Trump Pence 2020 Shirt If Dems win in Georgia chances are they’ve already flipped four of those other states and taken the presidency in which case Georgia doesn’t impact the majority. If Dems aren’t able to flip states like Maine and Arizona then the odds that they flip Georgia are very low. If Dems want to be able to pass substantial legislation they should also aim for a minimum of 51 seats to prevent Joe Manchin from effectively having a veto power over all legislation.
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In terms of a majority for 2021 Georgia doesn’t really matter. That said in terms of long term Senate math Georgia matters imminsely. If a Democratic president wins in 2020 there’s a good chance Dems will struggle in 2022 and 2024 could be even harder with races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. Basically Dems will have a really tough road ahead for 2022 and 2024 and so winning one or two extra Senate seats in 2020 could make a huge impact in the long term majority. Best Fill The Seat Trump Pence 2020 Shirt If Dems want to be able to pass substantial legislation they should also aim for a minimum of 51 seats to prevent Joe Manchin from effectively having a veto power over all legislation. Honestly, I doubt it. Manchin is cashing in on decades of name recognition and goodwill, and he still is barely clinging on to his seat.
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Ironically, I think the only thing that might keep Manchin in the Senate is the prospect of a Democratic majority, especially if things hinge on him. The guy is so miserable in the minority that he’s been considering running for governor back in WV since the start of the year. I don’t know much regarding West Virginia politics but I think that there are some other conservative Democrats with some name recognition there, probably not as much as Manchin, himself, but still some. Best Fill The Seat Trump Pence 2020 Shirt It’s definitely possible that he/she would lose, as you mention Manchin, himself, only won very narrowly in 2018, but I think that it’s also possible that he/she could win. I mean yes it’s theoretically possible, but it’s highly unlikely and would likely take a Party transformation for that seat to turn back blue